International Center on Conflict and Negotiation (ICCN)

In early 1990s the South Caucasus states Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia gained their independence and sovereignty. Since then these states have chosen the path of democratic governance (adoption of Constitution, division of powers, etc.), civil society (development of the NGO sector and independent mass media) and liberal economy (free market). However, currently Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are in an acute period of political, economic, social and cultural readjustment.

There have been enormous qualitative and quantitative changes in society since early 90s due to several key factors, such as:

• Inevitable but still severe post-Soviet social-economic collapse related with wide-spread corruption;
• Armed conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh, and in Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia), which reached high-intensity stage and later grew into a protracted “frozen” stage;
• Humanitarian crisis characterized by the vast flow of refugees and IDPs in the aftermath of regional conflicts as well as the exodus of population (including intellectual capital) to abroad for better opportunities and life conditions;
• Process of democratization and institutional reforms of political, military, economic and social systems in compliance with international standards and their gradual integration into the international community;
• Development of various strategically important economic projects with vast international assistance and support. The projects based on the region’s key strategic location (Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia) and energy resources (oil/gas resources along with pipeline routes, such as BTC and SCP).

Among above-mentioned issues, the most arduous challenge appeared to be armed conflicts that took up enormous amount of national human and economic resources, on one hand, and aggravated number of socio-economic and political hardship, on the other. After the ceasefire agreements over the conflicts were reached (over Nagorno Karabakh in May 1994; over Abkhazia in July 1993 – yet broken in September 1993 and regained in April 1994, and over South Ossetia in June 1992), much effort has been spent by the international community towards the final resolution of the conflicts, which mainly faced the hard-edged and polarized approaches of the conflicting parties. Also, these conflicts have had their deep impact on the societies awaking latent negative feelings, strengthening existing negative stereotypes and nationalism in general.

As a result of Azerbaijani-Armenia conflict over Nagorno Karabakh, Georgian-Abkhazian, and Georgian-South-Ossetian conflicts the following issues have become key factors for the development of South Caucasus states:

• Unresolved conflicts still decisively influence the political life of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia and hamper the process of their further democratization; military structures have gained an influential role in Armenian society, pushing back other democratic institutions and negatively affecting the country’s democratization process in general;
• The regions uncontrolled by federal authorities have provided a solid ground for corruption, lack of transparency and isolation of civil control over the decision making process;
• The conflicts in Georgia have hardened the relations with Russian Federation. Unresolved conflict over Nagorno Karabakh breeds tensed relations between Armenia and Turkey, which altogether seriously slows down the process of integration in the region;
• Hundreds of thousands of refugees and IDPs flown from the conflict zones, and the issue of their resettlement are still a serious social problem.

Conflict Resolution Strategy

South Caucasus states currently strive towards the non-violent resolution of conflict by peaceful means, however, there is no complete confidence in the stability and irreversibility of the peace process. The society of “no war, no peace” completely differs from the society living in the state of war and the one living in the state of peace. First of all, the distinctions lie in the institutional structure of society: values, stereotypes, expectations, accepted models of behavior, perspectives for social and economic development and overall in the public opinion. The society of “no war, no peace” is itself a dynamic phenomenon, having its own development stages and having the potential for self-transformation, and an ability to transfer the complex perceptions of the regional societies towards events and processes related to the conflict potential.

Thus, the burden of conflict and other social problems causes changes in social attitudes and imperatives. The character and the vector of changes need to be identified. In the positive aspect, it must be directed to the idea of proving security and peaceful co-existence and co-development of different societies in the region. Read Full Text more>>>